Citizen voting-age population
| District | Hispanic CVAP | NH White CVAP | Other CVAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-13 | 53.80% | 30.35% | 15.85% |
| CA-22 | 65.38% | 22.27% | 12.35% |
| CA-48 | 32.03% | 51.68% | 16.29% |
The proposal
Register 29,070 Republicans. Add 16,454 GOP votes.
$1.25 million across CA-13, CA-22, and CA-48—focused on 86,241 walkable targets.
$1.25M
Budget
132,679
Target universe
≈86,241
Walkable universe
29,070
Registration lift
16,454
GOP vote lift
Proposed allocation
How the $1.25 million will be spent.
Allocation by district, followed by the program-wide channel mix.
Allocation by district
The budget follows each district's share of the modeled opportunity.
| District | CVAP | Registered | Est. gap | Target universe | Walkable 65% | Proposed allocation | Registration lift | GOP vote lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-13 | 415,543 | 346,730 | 68,813 | 44,728 | 29,073 | $421,398 | 9,800 | 5,547 |
| CA-22 | 398,979 | 319,580 | 79,399 | 51,609 | 33,546 | $486,225 | 11,308 | 6,400 |
| CA-48 | 518,620 | 462,711 | 55,909 | 36,341 | 23,622 | $342,377 | 7,962 | 4,507 |
| Total | 1,333,142 | 1,129,021 | 204,121 | 132,679 | 86,241 | $1,250,000 | 29,070 | 16,454 |
Budget by channel
Program-wide mix across CA-13, CA-22, and CA-48.
Field / Door-to-Door
$562,500
45.0%
Data / Survey / Impact Measurement
$100,000
8.0%
Digital (OTT / CTV + Online)
$301,250
24.1%
Phones (Cell + Landline)
$161,250
12.9%
Traditional (TV / Radio / Print)
$125,000
10.0%
After field and data/research, the remaining 47% is distributed across digital, phones, and traditional media close to the existing channel proportions.
District composition
Hispanic citizens are a significant share of all three districts.
Hispanic CVAP is 53.80% in CA-13, 65.38% in CA-22, and 32.03% in CA-48.
Hispanic-origin profile
| District | Mexican | Salvadoran | Guatemalan | Puerto Rican | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-13 | 93.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 3.2% |
| CA-22 | 91.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 4.1% |
| CA-48 | 85.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 8.8% |
- Mexican origin accounts for 86%–93% of Hispanic residents across the three districts.
- Spanish-capable canvasser recruitment should center on Mexican-American community networks.
Origin figures describe Hispanic residents, not the target file. Language preference should be verified at the household level.
Bottom line
The modeled lift is 29,070 registrations and 16,454 GOP votes.
The decision is whether those projected outcomes are credible for this field universe and executable across the three districts.
Proposed spend$1.25M
Modeled prospects132,679
Est. walkable≈86,241
Projected lift29,070 regs · 16,454 GOP votes