Blackburn holds a 17-point lead in Tennessee’s Republican primary for governor

Governor ballot

The forced-choice ballot leaves the field in the same order

On the initial ballot, 45.4% choose Blackburn, 28.4% choose John Rose and 16.9% choose Monty Fritts. Another 9.3% are undecided. When the undecided option is removed and respondents are asked to choose among the three candidates, Blackburn’s share rises to 51.0%; Rose receives 31.8% and Fritts 17.2%.

This is the firm’s second survey of the race in recent weeks, and the shape of the race is unchanged: Blackburn leads the initial ballot and clears 50% in the forced choice. The forced-choice result shows how the same respondents divide when undecided is no longer an option.

Blackburn standing

About seven-in-ten approve of Blackburn and view her favorably

Sixty-nine percent approve of Blackburn’s work as a U.S. senator, while 26% disapprove. Her personal rating is nearly identical: 69% view her favorably and 29% view her unfavorably.

Blackburn is nearly universally known. Fewer than 3% have no opinion of her, and virtually none say they have never heard of her. Her ballot support therefore comes from an electorate that knows her and largely views her positively.

Voting plans

Two-thirds expect to vote before Election Day—or already have

Sixty-two percent select in-person early voting and 3% select absentee voting by mail. Combined, 65% choose a voting method that occurs before Election Day. Another 34% select in-person voting on Election Day.

The wording covers both voters who have already cast ballots and those who intend to vote early, so 65% should not be read as completed votes. Ninety percent say they are extremely likely to vote, and 75% report voting in at least three of the past four general elections.

Issue handling

Trump’s ratings top 90% on crime and deportation

Ninety-three percent approve of Donald Trump’s handling of the deportation of criminal illegal immigrants, and 92% approve of his handling of crime and public safety. Seventy-nine percent approve of his handling of the Iran war.

Inflation and the cost of living draw the lowest approval of the four issues tested: 67% approve and 30% disapprove. Even on this issue, approval exceeds disapproval by 36.5 points.

Direction of state

Seven-in-ten say Tennessee is on the right track

Seventy percent say Tennessee is on the right track, while 12% say it is on the wrong track and 18% are unsure. Fifty-seven percent say the country is on the right track, 19% say it is on the wrong track and 24% are unsure. Tennessee’s right-track rating is 13 points higher.

Growth and economic policy

Voters worry about the political effects of growth—and back incentives to attract business

Eighty-three percent are at least somewhat concerned that population growth from people moving to Tennessee could change the state’s political or ideological makeup. Nearly half (47%) are very concerned.

The same electorate is receptive to business incentives. Seventy-seven percent support Tennessee using taxpayer-funded incentives to encourage companies to bring jobs to the state, including 31% who strongly support the practice. Nineteen percent oppose it.

2028 Republican preference

Vance and Rubio take 71% combined in the early 2028 test

Asked whom they would like to see as the Republican nominee for president in 2028, 39% choose JD Vance and 32% choose Marco Rubio. No other named candidate reaches 6%, while 13% are undecided.

With two years remaining before the 2028 election, these numbers are an early measure of Republican preference.